2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Holstein Kiel–SC Paderborn 07

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 18 January 2026 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Holstein KielS. Skrzybski (assist: P. Harres)
67'Holstein KielLasse Rosenboom

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		SC Paderborn 07
7	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	9
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	11
0	Offsides	4
38%	Possession	62%
327	Passes	536
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.19 · SC Paderborn 07 1.60. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Holstein Kiel 7 · SC Paderborn 07 18; on target 3 and 6.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

M. Bacher→

5.15

yellows per match

0.18

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.2%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 31.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Holstein Kiel, 1.48 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 72.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,077 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win31.4%

Draw27.4%

SC Paderborn 07 to win41.2%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time31.8%

Level at half-time41.8%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead68.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1077 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 12
SC Paderborn 07: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 1
SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 11

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.19

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.60

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (20% more).

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.7%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.