2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Preußen Münster–Karlsruher SC

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 23%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

77'Preußen MünsterP. Jaeckel · red card
79'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek
87'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Karlsruher SC
16	Shots	14
7	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	8
0	Goalkeeper saves	7
7	Corners	9
1	Offsides	3
64%	Possession	36%
594	Passes	328
520	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.69 · Karlsruher SC 1.27. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Preußen Münster 16 · Karlsruher SC 14; on target 7 and 2.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

E. Weisbach→

4.53

yellows per match

0.12

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.7%: “Preußen Münster to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.79 for Preußen Münster, 1.16 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 76.7% (1X — Preußen Münster win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,073 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win51.7%

Draw25.0%

Karlsruher SC to win23.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Preußen Münster lead at half-time23.5%

Level at half-time42.8%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time33.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level66.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead76.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1073 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 11
Karlsruher SC: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 7
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.69

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 19% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.69 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.27

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.7%1–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.