2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

1. FC Nürnberg–SV Elversberg

3–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 17 January 2026 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'SV ElversbergT. Zimmerschied (assist: L. Günther)
56'1. FC NürnbergJ. Justvan (assist: Berkay Yilmaz)
65'SV ElversbergJarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento Malanga (assist: L. Günther)
71'1. FC NürnbergP. Scobel
90'1. FC NürnbergP. Scobel (assist: Berkay Yilmaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		SV Elversberg
27	Shots	13
12	Shots on target	7
20	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	8
7	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
391	Passes	390
313	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 · SV Elversberg 1.61. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 27 · SV Elversberg 13; on target 12 and 7.

Referee

K. Oldhafer→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.9%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “SV Elversberg to win” at 35.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.34 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 72.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,073 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win36.9%

Draw27.9%

SV Elversberg to win35.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	13

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time20.3%

Level at half-time42.5%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.5%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead79.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1073 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 12Actual: 10
SV Elversberg: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 7
SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.20

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.61

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (15% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.1%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.