2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Eintracht Braunschweig–1. FC Magdeburg

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 16 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Eintracht-Stadion, Braunschweig

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski
79'1. FC MagdeburgB. Atik (assist: R. Ghrieb)
90'1. FC MagdeburgM. Breunig (assist: R. Ghrieb)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Eintracht Braunschweig		1. FC Magdeburg
6	Shots	21
2	Shots on target	8
3	Shots inside the box	17
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
1	Corners	9
0	Offsides	1
44%	Possession	56%
373	Passes	476
288	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Eintracht Braunschweig 1.38 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.63. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Eintracht Braunschweig 6 · 1. FC Magdeburg 21; on target 2 and 8.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

P. Alt→

5.47

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 31.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Eintracht Braunschweig, 1.64 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 74.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,071 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Eintracht Braunschweig to win31.7%

Draw25.9%

1. FC Magdeburg to win42.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time41.1%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Eintracht Braunschweig ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1071 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 12
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 1
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.38

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (19% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.63

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%1–29.9%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.