2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 18

Fortuna Düsseldorf–Arminia Bielefeld

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 16 January 2026 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

86'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten (assist: F. Muslija)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		Arminia Bielefeld
12	Shots	6
3	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	2
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
452	Passes	383
354	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.37. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 12 · Arminia Bielefeld 6; on target 3 and 1.

Referee

S. Storks→

4.13

yellows per match

0.16

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.7%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.43 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.37 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,071 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win37.7%

Draw27.3%

Arminia Bielefeld to win35.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time25.1%

Level at half-time45.2%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time29.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level70.3%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead74.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1071 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 12Actual: 12
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 2
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.50

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.37

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.