2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

Preußen Münster–SV Elversberg

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 December 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'SV ElversbergY. Ebnoutalib (penalty)
90'Preußen MünsterE. Amenyido (assist: P. Jaeckel)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		SV Elversberg
19	Shots	10
7	Shots on target	5
11	Shots inside the box	7
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
60%	Possession	40%
520	Passes	346
436	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.15 · SV Elversberg 1.53. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Preußen Münster 19 · SV Elversberg 10; on target 7 and 5.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

F. Wagner→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.24 for Preußen Münster, 1.50 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,068 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win30.2%

Draw27.3%

SV Elversberg to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preußen Münster lead at half-time16.4%

Level at half-time42.0%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time41.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level58.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead83.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1068 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 19
SV Elversberg: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 5
SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.15

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.53

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.53 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–29.9%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.