2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

1. FC Kaiserslautern–1. FC Magdeburg

2–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'1. FC MagdeburgB. Atik
35'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski
49'1. FC MagdeburgA. Nollenberger (assist: B. Atik)
53'1. FC KaiserslauternD. Hanslik (assist: N. Skytta)
56'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Ritter (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		1. FC Magdeburg
15	Shots	20
4	Shots on target	10
12	Shots inside the box	15
7	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	3
53%	Possession	47%
368	Passes	339
271	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.83 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.36. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 15 · 1. FC Magdeburg 20; on target 4 and 10.

Referee

F. Lechner→

4.24

yellows per match

0.21

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.7%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.49 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win40.7%

Draw25.5%

1. FC Magdeburg to win33.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

6	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time47.1%

Level at half-time38.9%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time13.9%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level86.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead52.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 9
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 12Actual: 16

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 5Actual: 4
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.83

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.83 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.36

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.02×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.36 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–19.6%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.