2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 17

VfL Bochum–Karlsruher SC

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 December 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 23%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

35'VfL BochumFrancis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (assist: Noah Loosli)
47'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek
69'VfL BochumFrancis-Ikechukwu Onyeka (assist: M. Wittek)
86'Karlsruher SCS. Fukuda (assist: D. Herold)

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		Karlsruher SC
11	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	6
9	Shots inside the box	9
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	3
1	Offsides	5
37%	Possession	63%
370	Passes	626
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.96 · Karlsruher SC 1.29. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots VfL Bochum 11 · Karlsruher SC 10; on target 4 and 6.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

M. P. Eckermann→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.2%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.02 for VfL Bochum, 1.08 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 81.8% (1X — VfL Bochum win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,064 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win59.2%

Draw22.6%

Karlsruher SC to win18.2%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	10

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

VfL Bochum lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time42.9%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time23.0%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level77.0%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1064 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 11Actual: 7
Karlsruher SC: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 3
Karlsruher SC: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.96

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC concede 20% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.29

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.1%2–111.0%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.