2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

SV Elversberg–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

79'SV ElversbergOtto Emerson Stange (assist: T. Zimmerschied)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Fortuna Düsseldorf
15	Shots	17
3	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	13
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
8	Corners	6
4	Offsides	2
57%	Possession	43%
396	Passes	294
326	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 2.07 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 0.93. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SV Elversberg 15 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 17; on target 3 and 5.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

R. Hempel→

5.13

yellows per match

0.37

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 61.0%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.10 for SV Elversberg, 1.08 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 82.8% (1X — SV Elversberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win61.0%

Draw21.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win17.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	20

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time39.8%

Level at half-time42.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead60.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 9Actual: 7
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 12Actual: 20

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 8
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score2.07

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.07 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score0.93

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.6%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.