2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

FC Schalke 04–1. FC Nürnberg

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 December 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'FC Schalke 04Vitalie Becker (assist: K. Karaman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		1. FC Nürnberg
7	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	7
2	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
265	Passes	493
166	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.68 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.06. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 7 · 1. FC Nürnberg 5; on target 3 and 3.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Christian Dingert, Germany→

3.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.0%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.66 for FC Schalke 04, 1.06 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 77.2% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,059 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win51.0%

Draw26.1%

1. FC Nürnberg to win22.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time33.9%

Level at half-time42.2%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time23.9%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level76.1%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead66.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1059 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 12Actual: 18
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.68

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.68 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.06

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–010.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.