2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 16

1. FC Magdeburg–Holstein Kiel

3–3

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 December 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

43'Holstein KielD. Zec (penalty)
45'1. FC MagdeburgN. Pesch (assist: M. Żukowski)
45'1. FC MagdeburgB. Atik
68'Holstein KielD. Zec (penalty)
84'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski (penalty)
90'Holstein KielS. Skrzybski (assist: M. Muller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		Holstein Kiel
18	Shots	14
8	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	4
3	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
402	Passes	303
329	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.59 · Holstein Kiel 1.31. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 18 · Holstein Kiel 14; on target 8 and 6.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Lukas Benen, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.35 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,055 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win45.7%

Draw25.5%

Holstein Kiel to win28.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–1

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time19.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time38.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level61.7%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead80.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1055 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 11Actual: 11
Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 6
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.59

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.59 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.31

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.31 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.2%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.