2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

1. FC Nürnberg–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

2–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 7 December 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

48'1. FC NürnbergL. Lochoshvili (assist: J. Justvan)
53'SpVgg Greuther FürthF. Klaus (assist: A. Keller)
57'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: J. Justvan)
61'SpVgg Greuther FürthA. Keller (assist: N. Futkeu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
13	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
62%	Possession	38%
481	Passes	300
418	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.86 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.14. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 13 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 9; on target 3 and 5.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Lars Erbst, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.1%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.88 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
The highest double chance value is 79.1% (1X — 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,050 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win55.1%

Draw24.1%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win20.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time44.7%

Level at half-time38.0%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time17.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level82.7%

12 — not level at half-time62.0%

X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead55.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1050 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 12
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.86

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.14

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.14 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.9%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.