2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Dynamo Dresden

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 6 December 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'1. FC KaiserslauternN. Skytta (assist: D. Hanslik)
52'1. FC KaiserslauternM. Ritter
70'1. FC KaiserslauternMika Haas
76'Dynamo DresdenJ. Lemmer (assist: L. Boeder)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Dynamo Dresden
12	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	2
8	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
7	Corners	3
1	Offsides	4
41%	Possession	59%
302	Passes	437
189	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.98 · Dynamo Dresden 1.24. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 12 · Dynamo Dresden 9; on target 3 and 2.
Dynamo Dresden kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Max Burda, Germany→

6.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.5%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “Dynamo Dresden to win” at 27.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.71 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.30 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 74.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,046 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win46.5%

Draw25.6%

Dynamo Dresden to win27.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time40.5%

Level at half-time37.4%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time22.0%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level78.0%

12 — not level at half-time62.6%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead59.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1046 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 11
Dynamo Dresden: at least 12Actual: 9

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 5Actual: 7
Dynamo Dresden: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.98

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score above the league average (17% more).

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.98 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.24

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–110.3%1–27.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.