2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

Preußen Münster–Hannover 96

2–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 25%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

41'Hannover 96B. Källman (assist: M. Nawrocki)
73'Hannover 96D. Yokota
90'Preußen MünsterO. Batista Meier (penalty)
90'Preußen MünsterZ. Sertdemir (assist: L. Lokotsch)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Hannover 96
19	Shots	4
4	Shots on target	2
10	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	2
1	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
513	Passes	418
442	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.21 · Hannover 96 1.49. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Preußen Münster 19 · Hannover 96 4; on target 4 and 2.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Michael Bacher, Germany→

6.25

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.5%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.13 for Preußen Münster, 1.83 for Hannover 96.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (X2 — draw or Hannover 96 win).
These values were computed from 1,044 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win21.9%

Draw24.6%

Hannover 96 to win53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	17

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preußen Münster lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time42.1%

Hannover 96 lead at half-time34.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level65.6%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Hannover 96 ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1044 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 13
Hannover 96: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 5
Hannover 96: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.21

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.49

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.49 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%1–210.8%0–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.