2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 15

Fortuna Düsseldorf–FC Schalke 04

0–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 5 December 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (penalty)
55'Fortuna DüsseldorfT. Oberdorf · red card
81'FC Schalke 04Vitalie Becker (assist: C. Gomis)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		FC Schalke 04
14	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	7
8	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	1
1	Corners	4
6	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
398	Passes	321
291	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28 · FC Schalke 04 1.50. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 14 · FC Schalke 04 13; on target 1 and 7.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Felix Prigan, Germany→

4.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 29.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.49 for FC Schalke 04.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,044 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win29.0%

Draw27.6%

FC Schalke 04 to win43.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	8

7	Yellow cards	1

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time26.1%

Level at half-time44.3%

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time29.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level70.4%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or FC Schalke 04 ahead73.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1044 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 15
FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 1
FC Schalke 04: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.28

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.50

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.9%0–19.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.