2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

Dynamo Dresden–Fortuna Düsseldorf

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 30 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Rudolf-Harbig-Stadion, Dresden

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Dynamo DresdenA. Rossipal
53'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij (assist: N. Hauptmann)
84'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Rasmussen (assist: C. Itten)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Dynamo Dresden		Fortuna Düsseldorf
16	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	2
11	Shots inside the box	10
1	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	0
2	Offsides	3
43%	Possession	57%
356	Passes	488
285	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Dynamo Dresden 1.63 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.40. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Dynamo Dresden 16 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 13; on target 4 and 2.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Lukas Benen, Germany→

6.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.9%: “Dynamo Dresden to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Dynamo Dresden, 1.32 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,041 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Dynamo Dresden to win41.9%

Draw26.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win31.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time40.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time28.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Dynamo Dresden ahead or level71.8%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1041 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Dynamo Dresden: at least 10Actual: 12
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Dynamo Dresden: at least 5
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.63

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.40

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.8%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.