2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

1. FC Magdeburg–1. FC Nürnberg

3–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

73'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski (assist: B. Atik)
76'1. FC NürnbergRafael Lubach · red card
90'1. FC MagdeburgM. Żukowski (assist: A. Nollenberger)
90'1. FC MagdeburgM. Breunig (assist: A. Nollenberger)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		1. FC Nürnberg
19	Shots	7
8	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
59%	Possession	41%
473	Passes	333
397	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.63 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.38. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 19 · 1. FC Nürnberg 7; on target 8 and 1.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Felix Bickel, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “1. FC Magdeburg to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 31.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.44 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.6% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,040 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win43.1%

Draw25.4%

1. FC Nürnberg to win31.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	7

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time19.2%

Level at half-time39.8%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time41.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level58.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.2%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead80.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1040 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 12Actual: 12
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 6
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.63

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.38

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%2–19.9%1–28.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.