2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

Holstein Kiel–Hertha BSC

0–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'Hertha BSCD. Kownacki (assist: F. Reese)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Hertha BSC
9	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
52%	Possession	48%
461	Passes	416
377	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.43 · Hertha BSC 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Holstein Kiel 9 · Hertha BSC 10; on target 0 and 2.

Referee

Felix Wagner, Germany→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.54 for Holstein Kiel, 1.38 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,037 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win40.5%

Draw26.6%

Hertha BSC to win32.9%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	6

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time32.7%

Level at half-time42.3%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.7%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead67.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1037 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 13
Hertha BSC: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 8
Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.43

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.43 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.22

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel's defence is close to the league average (0.88×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.7%1–28.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.