2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–VfL Bochum

0–3

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Saturday, 29 November 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'VfL BochumI. Sissoko (assist: M. Wittek)
13'VfL BochumI. Sissoko
17'VfL BochumP. Hofmann (assist: Francis-Ikechukwu Onyeka)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		VfL Bochum
10	Shots	14
1	Shots on target	6
5	Shots inside the box	10
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	9
3	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
516	Passes	417
427	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.52 · VfL Bochum 1.67. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 10 · VfL Bochum 14; on target 1 and 6.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Jarno Wienefeld, Germany→

9.50

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.0%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 30.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.68 for VfL Bochum.
The highest double chance value is 74.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,037 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win30.3%

Draw25.7%

VfL Bochum to win44.0%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time41.6%

VfL Bochum lead at half-time32.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level67.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or VfL Bochum ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1037 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 9Actual: 13
VfL Bochum: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 5Actual: 6
VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.52

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.52 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.67

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 22% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%1–210.0%2–18.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.