2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 14

FC Schalke 04–SC Paderborn 07

2–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Friday, 28 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

38'SC Paderborn 07L. Curda (assist: R. Obermair)
45'FC Schalke 04K. Karaman (assist: M. Sylla)
86'FC Schalke 04B. Lasme (assist: K. Karaman)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		SC Paderborn 07
14	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	5
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	3
3	Offsides	3
38%	Possession	62%
239	Passes	413
143	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.32 · SC Paderborn 07 1.34. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots FC Schalke 04 14 · SC Paderborn 07 8; on target 5 and 1.
SC Paderborn 07 kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Tobias Reichel, Germany→

4.00

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.9%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “SC Paderborn 07 to win” at 33.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.32 for FC Schalke 04, 1.22 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 71.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,035 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win37.9%

Draw28.8%

SC Paderborn 07 to win33.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time42.7%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time22.6%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level77.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1035 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 7
SC Paderborn 07: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 3
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.32

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.34

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04 concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–09.5%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.