2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

1. FC Nürnberg–Arminia Bielefeld

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 23 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

49'1. FC NürnbergRafael Lubach (penalty)
56'1. FC NürnbergF. Becker (assist: Berkay Yilmaz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Arminia Bielefeld
11	Shots	16
6	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	12
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	13
1	Offsides	4
57%	Possession	43%
509	Passes	363
422	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.66 · Arminia Bielefeld 1.51. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 11 · Arminia Bielefeld 16; on target 6 and 1.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Robert Schröder, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.3%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 32.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.41 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,032 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win41.3%

Draw26.1%

Arminia Bielefeld to win32.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time30.5%

Level at half-time39.3%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time30.2%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level69.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.7%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead69.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1032 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 12Actual: 12
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 6
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.66

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.51

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.51 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.7%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.