2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

SV Darmstadt 98–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

4–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 22 November 2025 at 19:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby (assist: Sergio López)
38'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Futkeu (penalty)
52'SpVgg Greuther FürthN. Futkeu (assist: F. Klaus)
58'SV Darmstadt 98I. Lidberg (assist: F. Hornby)
63'SV Darmstadt 98F. Hornby (assist: M. Richter)
78'SV Darmstadt 98

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
18	Shots	14
9	Shots on target	8
14	Shots inside the box	4
7	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
566	Passes	398
482	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 2.06 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0.94. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 18 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 14; on target 9 and 8.
SV Darmstadt 98 kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

Max Burda, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.2%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.14 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.06 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
The highest double chance value is 83.6% (1X — SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,031 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win62.2%

Draw21.4%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win16.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	9

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time38.9%

Level at half-time40.8%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time20.3%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level79.7%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead61.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1031 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 12Actual: 13
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 4Actual: 5
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score2.06

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score0.94

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98 concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.94 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.3%2–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.