2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 13

VfL Bochum–Dynamo Dresden

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 21 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Vonovia Ruhrstadion, Bochum

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 25%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Dynamo DresdenA. Rossipal
45'Dynamo DresdenV. Vermeij
58'VfL BochumC. Lenz

Match statistics

Match statistics
VfL Bochum		Dynamo Dresden
23	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
13	Corners	8
1	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
477	Passes	372
408	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: VfL Bochum 1.87 · Dynamo Dresden 1.35. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots VfL Bochum 23 · Dynamo Dresden 10; on target 4 and 4.
VfL Bochum kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Lars Erbst, Germany→

5.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.8%: “VfL Bochum to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.76 for VfL Bochum, 1.22 for Dynamo Dresden.
The highest double chance value is 75.1% (1X — VfL Bochum win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,026 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

VfL Bochum to win49.8%

Draw25.2%

Dynamo Dresden to win24.9%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

1	Fouls	10

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

VfL Bochum lead at half-time45.0%

Level at half-time37.8%

Dynamo Dresden lead at half-time17.2%

First-half double chance

1X — VfL Bochum ahead or level82.8%

12 — not level at half-time62.2%

X2 — level or Dynamo Dresden ahead55.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1026 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

VfL Bochum: at least 13Actual: 1
Dynamo Dresden: at least 9Actual: 10

Corners

VfL Bochum: at least 5Actual: 13
Dynamo Dresden: at least 5Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals VfL Bochum score1.87

Attack: VfL Bochum score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Dynamo Dresden's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Dynamo Dresden score1.35

Attack: Dynamo Dresden score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: VfL Bochum concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.4%2–110.6%1–08.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.