2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 12

Holstein Kiel–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Holstein KielKasper Davidsen

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Fortuna Düsseldorf
13	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
6	Shots inside the box	11
6	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
343	Passes	415
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.84 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.03. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Holstein Kiel 13 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 17; on target 4 and 6.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Felix Bickel, Germany→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.7%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.87 for Holstein Kiel, 1.16 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 78.0% (1X — Holstein Kiel win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win53.7%

Draw24.2%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win22.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time38.1%

Level at half-time43.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time18.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level81.9%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead61.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1023 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 9
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 3
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.84

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.03

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.8%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.