2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 12

1. FC Magdeburg–SC Paderborn 07

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 9 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'SC Paderborn 07S. Klaas (assist: S. Tigges)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		SC Paderborn 07
17	Shots	12
3	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	3
57%	Possession	43%
532	Passes	408
445	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.25 · SC Paderborn 07 1.78. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 17 · SC Paderborn 07 12; on target 3 and 6.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Felix Prigan, Germany→

3.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.8%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 24.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.87 for SC Paderborn 07.
The highest double chance value is 75.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,023 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win24.9%

Draw24.3%

SC Paderborn 07 to win50.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time22.4%

Level at half-time42.0%

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time35.6%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level64.4%

12 — not level at half-time58.0%

X2 — level or SC Paderborn 07 ahead77.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1023 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 10Actual: 10
SC Paderborn 07: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 3
SC Paderborn 07: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.25

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score1.78

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.78 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–210.6%0–27.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.