2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 12

Arminia Bielefeld–Karlsruher SC

4–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SchücoArena, Bielefeld

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (penalty)
46'Arminia BielefeldM. Momuluh
50'Arminia BielefeldM. Momuluh (assist: T. Handwerker)
60'Arminia BielefeldN. Sarenren Bazee (assist: M. Corboz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		Karlsruher SC
19	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
2	Offsides	0
44%	Possession	56%
441	Passes	569
372	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 1.58 · Karlsruher SC 1.67. On the pitch: 4-0.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 19 · Karlsruher SC 8; on target 6 and 2.
Karlsruher SC kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Patrick Schwengers, Germany→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 28.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.36 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,019 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win47.0%

Draw25.0%

Karlsruher SC to win28.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time32.1%

Level at half-time39.1%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time28.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level71.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.9%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead67.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1019 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 11Actual: 7
Karlsruher SC: at least 13Actual: 11

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 3
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.58

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.58 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.67

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.9%2–110.3%1–27.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.