2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 12

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Preußen Münster

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 7 November 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 37%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'SpVgg Greuther FürthJ. Dehm

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Preußen Münster
7	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	3
2	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	7
6	Offsides	3
44%	Possession	56%
364	Passes	472
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.44 · Preußen Münster 1.50. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7 · Preußen Münster 12; on target 2 and 3.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Timo Gansloweit, Germany→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 36.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.45 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,017 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win36.8%

Draw26.8%

Preußen Münster to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time31.5%

Level at half-time40.6%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time27.9%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level72.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead68.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1017 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 11Actual: 9
Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 5Actual: 4
Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.44

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.50

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 23% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–19.2%1–29.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.