2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 11

1. FC Nürnberg–Eintracht Braunschweig

2–1

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 12:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: J. Justvan)
33'1. FC NürnbergF. Becker (assist: M. Zoma)
40'Eintracht BraunschweigK. Ehlers (assist: Sven Köhler)
90+3'Eintracht BraunschweigK. Ehlers · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Eintracht Braunschweig
4	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	0
1	Corners	9
2	Offsides	2
47%	Possession	53%
418	Passes	454
339	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.88 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.06. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 4 · Eintracht Braunschweig 12; on target 2 and 4.

Referee

Lukas Benen, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.07 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 80.3% (1X — 1. FC Nürnberg win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,010 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win56.4%

Draw23.9%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win19.7%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time46.4%

Level at half-time37.5%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time16.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level83.9%

12 — not level at half-time62.5%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead53.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1010 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 13
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 12Actual: 13

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 1
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.88

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.88 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.06

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (29% fewer).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–111.0%2–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.