2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 11

Preußen Münster–Holstein Kiel

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 31 October 2025 at 17:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Holstein KielA. Kaprálik (assist: A. Bernhardsson)
60'Preußen MünsterO. Batista Meier (penalty)
77'Preußen MünsterYassine Bouchama

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Holstein Kiel
12	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	3
41%	Possession	59%
337	Passes	477
255	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.13 · Holstein Kiel 1.50. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Preußen Münster 12 · Holstein Kiel 17; on target 5 and 4.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Jarno Wienefeld, Germany→

10.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “Preußen Münster to win” at 28.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for Preußen Münster, 1.57 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,008 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win28.6%

Draw26.8%

Holstein Kiel to win44.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

18	Fouls	18

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Preußen Münster lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time42.7%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time37.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level62.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.3%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1008 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 18
Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 18

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 5Actual: 4
Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.13

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.50

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%1–210.1%0–18.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.