2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 10

Arminia Bielefeld–SV Elversberg

2–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SchücoArena, Bielefeld

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (assist: M. Momuluh)
28'Arminia BielefeldF. Le Joncour (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		SV Elversberg
10	Shots	16
2	Shots on target	2
9	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	2
31%	Possession	69%
249	Passes	588
174	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 1.19 · SV Elversberg 2.03. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 10 · SV Elversberg 16; on target 2 and 2.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

Felix Prigan, Germany→

3.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.5%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Arminia Bielefeld to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.45 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.68 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 74.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,001 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win32.1%

Draw25.5%

SV Elversberg to win42.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time16.5%

Level at half-time40.1%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time43.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level56.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead83.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1001 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 13
SV Elversberg: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 3
SV Elversberg: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score1.19

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.19 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score2.03

Attack: SV Elversberg score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld concede 25% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.03 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.1%1–29.8%2–18.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.