2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 10

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–Karlsruher SC

1–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Karlsruher SCFabian Schleusener (assist: C. Kobald)
34'Karlsruher SCL. Egloff
79'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (assist: Fabian Schleusener)
90'SpVgg Greuther FürthB. Hrgota (assist: F. Klaus)
90'Karlsruher SCM. Wanitzek (assist: A. Muller)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		Karlsruher SC
16	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	8
9	Shots inside the box	6
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
54%	Possession	46%
488	Passes	429
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.38 · Karlsruher SC 1.72. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 16 · Karlsruher SC 13; on target 5 and 8.

Referee

Eric-Dominic Weisbach, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 46.0%: “Karlsruher SC to win”. Second comes “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win” at 29.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.79 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 999 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win29.2%

Draw24.8%

Karlsruher SC to win46.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	18

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time27.5%

Level at half-time39.2%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time33.2%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level66.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead72.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 999 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 10Actual: 7
Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 18

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 9
Karlsruher SC: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.38

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.72

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth concede 21% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%1–210.1%2–17.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.