2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 10

FC Schalke 04–SV Darmstadt 98

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 24 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'FC Schalke 04M. Sylla (assist: S. El-Faouzi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		SV Darmstadt 98
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	1
10	Shots inside the box	4
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	5
38%	Possession	62%
320	Passes	528
214	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.39 · SV Darmstadt 98 1.39. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 10 · SV Darmstadt 98 7; on target 2 and 1.
SV Darmstadt 98 kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Michael Bacher, Germany→

7.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.3%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.68 for FC Schalke 04, 1.15 for SV Darmstadt 98.
The highest double chance value is 75.3% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 999 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win49.3%

Draw26.0%

SV Darmstadt 98 to win24.7%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time28.6%

Level at half-time44.2%

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time27.2%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level72.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.8%

X2 — level or SV Darmstadt 98 ahead71.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 999 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 16
SV Darmstadt 98: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 6
SV Darmstadt 98: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.39

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98 concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.39

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.6%1–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.