2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 9

1. FC Nürnberg–Holstein Kiel

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 October 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

28'1. FC NürnbergM. Zoma (assist: J. Justvan)
86'Holstein KielC. Johansson (assist: A. Bernhardsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Holstein Kiel
16	Shots	12
6	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	1
40%	Possession	60%
355	Passes	534
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.20 · Holstein Kiel 1.62. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 16 · Holstein Kiel 12; on target 6 and 4.
Holstein Kiel kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Timo Gansloweit, Germany→

0.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 35.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.42 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 73.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 996 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win37.6%

Draw26.9%

Holstein Kiel to win35.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time20.9%

Level at half-time41.0%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time38.1%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level61.9%

12 — not level at half-time59.0%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead79.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 996 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 11Actual: 8
Holstein Kiel: at least 13Actual: 16

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 6Actual: 3
Holstein Kiel: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.20

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 28% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.62

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.3%2–19.3%1–29.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.