2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 9

SC Paderborn 07–Arminia Bielefeld

4–3

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Home Deluxe Arena, Paderborn

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (penalty)
26'SC Paderborn 07M. Baur (assist: F. Bilbija)
29'Arminia BielefeldM. Momuluh (assist: J. Grodowski)
50'SC Paderborn 07S. Tigges
55'SC Paderborn 07F. Bilbija (penalty)
62'SC Paderborn 07S. Tigges (assist: M. Baur)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SC Paderborn 07		Arminia Bielefeld
20	Shots	16
9	Shots on target	4
17	Shots inside the box	9
1	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	5
4	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
392	Passes	379
296	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 2.05 · Arminia Bielefeld 0.97. On the pitch: 4-3.
Shots SC Paderborn 07 20 · Arminia Bielefeld 16; on target 9 and 4.

Referee

Max Burda, Germany→

4.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.4%: “SC Paderborn 07 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.93 for SC Paderborn 07, 1.11 for Arminia Bielefeld.
The highest double chance value is 80.0% (1X — SC Paderborn 07 win or draw).
These values were computed from 992 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SC Paderborn 07 to win56.4%

Draw23.6%

Arminia Bielefeld to win20.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

20	Fouls	16

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

SC Paderborn 07 lead at half-time35.7%

Level at half-time43.8%

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time20.5%

First-half double chance

1X — SC Paderborn 07 ahead or level79.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Arminia Bielefeld ahead64.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 992 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SC Paderborn 07: at least 13Actual: 20
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

SC Paderborn 07: at least 5Actual: 8
Arminia Bielefeld: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SC Paderborn 07 score2.05

Attack: SC Paderborn 07 score above the league average (16% more).

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.05 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score0.97

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SC Paderborn 07 concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.6%2–110.9%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.