2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 9

Fortuna Düsseldorf–Eintracht Braunschweig

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 17 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 24%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Eintracht BraunschweigC. Conteh (assist: Max Marie)
39'Eintracht BraunschweigMax Marie (assist: C. Conteh)
65'Fortuna DüsseldorfKenneth Schmidt (assist: C. Rasmussen)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		Eintracht Braunschweig
14	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
9	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
9	Corners	2
2	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
563	Passes	293
476	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.84 · Eintracht Braunschweig 1.12. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 14 · Eintracht Braunschweig 14; on target 5 and 5.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Patrick Schwengers, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.7%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.74 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.16 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 76.1% (1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf win or draw).
These values were computed from 990 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win50.7%

Draw25.4%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win23.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time45.6%

Level at half-time39.2%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time15.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level84.8%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead54.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 990 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 14
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 5Actual: 9
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.84

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.84 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score1.12

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (28% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–110.7%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.