2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 8

1. FC Magdeburg–SV Elversberg

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

23'SV ElversbergB. Conté (assist: N. Mickelson)
45'SV ElversbergT. Zimmerschied (assist: B. Conté)
74'SV ElversbergOtto Emerson Stange
80'SV ElversbergJarzinho Ataide Adriano de Nascimento Malanga (assist: B. Conté)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Magdeburg		SV Elversberg
15	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	8
10	Shots inside the box	14
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	13
3	Offsides	0
56%	Possession	44%
439	Passes	338
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Magdeburg 1.32 · SV Elversberg 1.66. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots 1. FC Magdeburg 15 · SV Elversberg 20; on target 5 and 8.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

Richard Hempel, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.6%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 37.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for 1. FC Magdeburg, 1.65 for SV Elversberg.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 987 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Magdeburg to win37.4%

Draw25.0%

SV Elversberg to win37.6%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	6

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time15.5%

Level at half-time39.2%

SV Elversberg lead at half-time45.3%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Magdeburg ahead or level54.7%

12 — not level at half-time60.8%

X2 — level or SV Elversberg ahead84.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 987 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 12Actual: 12
SV Elversberg: at least 10Actual: 6

Corners

1. FC Magdeburg: at least 5Actual: 7
SV Elversberg: at least 4Actual: 13

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.32

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.66

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.66 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%1–29.0%2–19.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.