2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 8

Hertha BSC–Preußen Münster

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'Hertha BSCS. Grønning (assist: M. Cuisance)
52'Hertha BSCS. Grønning
84'Preußen MünsterE. Amenyido (assist: O. Batista Meier)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hertha BSC		Preußen Münster
16	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	6
16	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	5
5	Corners	4
5	Offsides	2
34%	Possession	66%
321	Passes	655
242	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hertha BSC 1.57 · Preußen Münster 1.15. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Hertha BSC 16 · Preußen Münster 17; on target 7 and 6.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

Lukas Benen, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.0%: “Hertha BSC to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.69 for Hertha BSC, 1.18 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Hertha BSC win or draw).
These values were computed from 983 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hertha BSC to win49.0%

Draw25.8%

Preußen Münster to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Hertha BSC lead at half-time31.7%

Level at half-time41.2%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time27.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Hertha BSC ahead or level72.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead68.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 983 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hertha BSC: at least 13Actual: 12
Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Hertha BSC: at least 5Actual: 5
Preußen Münster: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.57

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.57 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.15

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.5%1–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.