2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 8

Fortuna Düsseldorf–1. FC Nürnberg

2–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 3 October 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'1. FC NürnbergRafael Lubach (assist: M. Zoma)
67'Fortuna DüsseldorfAnouar El Azzouzi (assist: D. Schmidt)
80'1. FC NürnbergJ. Justvan (penalty)
83'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Rasmussen (assist: Anouar El Azzouzi)
85'1. FC NürnbergF. Becker

Match statistics

Match statistics
Fortuna Düsseldorf		1. FC Nürnberg
12	Shots	17
7	Shots on target	7
10	Shots inside the box	12
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
1	Corners	2
2	Offsides	1
55%	Possession	45%
519	Passes	432
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.72 · 1. FC Nürnberg 1.37. On the pitch: 2-3.
Shots Fortuna Düsseldorf 12 · 1. FC Nürnberg 17; on target 7 and 7.
Fortuna Düsseldorf kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

Wolfgang Haslberger, Germany→

8.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.2%: “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win”. Second comes “1. FC Nürnberg to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.52 for Fortuna Düsseldorf, 1.41 for 1. FC Nürnberg.
The highest double chance value is 73.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 981 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win39.2%

Draw26.6%

1. FC Nürnberg to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time40.8%

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time21.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead or level78.5%

12 — not level at half-time59.2%

X2 — level or 1. FC Nürnberg ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 981 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 11Actual: 14
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 1
1. FC Nürnberg: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.72

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.72 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.37

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–19.5%1–28.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.