2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 7

Preußen Münster–Eintracht Braunschweig

3–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

22'Preußen MünsterO. Vilhelmsson (assist: L. Lokotsch)
47'Preußen MünsterE. Amenyido (assist: M. Schulz)
58'Preußen MünsterO. Batista Meier (assist: C. Makridis)
69'Eintracht BraunschweigE. Yardımcı

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Eintracht Braunschweig
11	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	9
0	Offsides	2
51%	Possession	49%
499	Passes	459
403	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.71 · Eintracht Braunschweig 0.98. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Preußen Münster 11 · Eintracht Braunschweig 12; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

Richard Hempel, Germany→

7.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.5%: “Preußen Münster to win”. Second comes “Eintracht Braunschweig to win” at 27.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.55 for Preußen Münster, 1.17 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win45.5%

Draw27.1%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win27.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	16

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Preußen Münster lead at half-time43.9%

Level at half-time38.2%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time17.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level82.1%

12 — not level at half-time61.8%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead56.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 12Actual: 16
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 5Actual: 3
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 4Actual: 9

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.71

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.71 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score0.98

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.98 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.2%1–09.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.