2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 7

1. FC Nürnberg–Hertha BSC

0–3

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 28 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 32%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'Hertha BSCMarten Winkler (assist: F. Reese)
41'Hertha BSCM. Cuisance
85'Hertha BSCD. Kownacki (assist: F. Reese)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Nürnberg		Hertha BSC
12	Shots	14
4	Shots on target	4
8	Shots inside the box	11
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
0	Offsides	5
63%	Possession	37%
483	Passes	285
404	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Nürnberg 1.47 · Hertha BSC 1.39. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots 1. FC Nürnberg 12 · Hertha BSC 14; on target 4 and 4.
1. FC Nürnberg kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Marc Philip Eckermann, Germany→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.6%: “1. FC Nürnberg to win”. Second comes “Hertha BSC to win” at 32.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for 1. FC Nürnberg, 1.42 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 978 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Nürnberg to win41.6%

Draw26.0%

Hertha BSC to win32.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	22

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

1. FC Nürnberg lead at half-time43.1%

Level at half-time39.5%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time17.4%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Nürnberg ahead or level82.6%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead56.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 978 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 10Actual: 12
Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 22

Corners

1. FC Nürnberg: at least 5Actual: 6
Hertha BSC: at least 4Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Nürnberg score1.47

Attack: 1. FC Nürnberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.39

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Nürnberg's defence is close to the league average (1.09×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.6%2–19.8%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.