2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 7

SV Elversberg–Holstein Kiel

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Waldstadion Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'SV ElversbergOtto Emerson Stange (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Elversberg		Holstein Kiel
19	Shots	12
4	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
9	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
60%	Possession	40%
488	Passes	337
411	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Elversberg 1.47 · Holstein Kiel 1.24. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots SV Elversberg 19 · Holstein Kiel 12; on target 4 and 3.
SV Elversberg kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

Felix Wagner, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.6%: “SV Elversberg to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.62 for SV Elversberg, 1.29 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 974 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Elversberg to win44.6%

Draw26.3%

Holstein Kiel to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

SV Elversberg lead at half-time34.7%

Level at half-time41.3%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time24.0%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Elversberg ahead or level76.0%

12 — not level at half-time58.7%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead65.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 974 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Elversberg: at least 11Actual: 11
Holstein Kiel: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

SV Elversberg: at least 5Actual: 9
Holstein Kiel: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Elversberg score1.47

Attack: SV Elversberg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 23% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.24

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SV Elversberg concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.1%1–07.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.