2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 7

FC Schalke 04–SpVgg Greuther Fürth

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 26 September 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

77'FC Schalke 04F. Porath

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		SpVgg Greuther Fürth
24	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	2
20	Shots inside the box	3
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
10	Corners	6
2	Offsides	2
59%	Possession	41%
468	Passes	323
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.70 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.25. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots FC Schalke 04 24 · SpVgg Greuther Fürth 7; on target 7 and 2.
FC Schalke 04 kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

Tom Bauer, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.4%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.82 for FC Schalke 04, 1.12 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
The highest double chance value is 78.1% (1X — FC Schalke 04 win or draw).
These values were computed from 972 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win53.4%

Draw24.7%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win21.9%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	15

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time34.3%

Level at half-time39.9%

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time25.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level74.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead65.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 972 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 12Actual: 8
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 9Actual: 15

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 10
SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.70

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.70 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.25

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.2%2–110.8%2–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.