2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 6

Holstein Kiel–Karlsruher SC

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 21 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Holstein-Stadion, Kiel

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Holstein KielA. Kaprálik (assist: A. Bernhardsson)
35'Holstein KielD. Zec (assist: J. Tolkin)
71'Holstein KielP. Harres (assist: A. Bernhardsson)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Holstein Kiel		Karlsruher SC
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	4
10	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
46%	Possession	54%
463	Passes	525
388	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Holstein Kiel 1.62 · Karlsruher SC 1.15. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Holstein Kiel 11 · Karlsruher SC 13; on target 4 and 4.

Referee

Michael Bacher, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.7%: “Holstein Kiel to win”. Second comes “Karlsruher SC to win” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Holstein Kiel, 1.20 for Karlsruher SC.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 969 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Holstein Kiel to win47.7%

Draw26.1%

Karlsruher SC to win26.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	15

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time37.7%

Level at half-time39.5%

Karlsruher SC lead at half-time22.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Holstein Kiel ahead or level77.2%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Karlsruher SC ahead62.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 969 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Holstein Kiel: at least 12Actual: 14
Karlsruher SC: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

Holstein Kiel: at least 4Actual: 4
Karlsruher SC: at least 5Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.62

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Karlsruher SC's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.62 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Karlsruher SC score1.15

Attack: Karlsruher SC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.0%2–110.4%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.