2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 6

1. FC Kaiserslautern–Preußen Münster

4–1

HT 3–0

Kick-off: Friday, 19 September 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Fritz Walter Stadion, Kaiserslautern

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'1. FC KaiserslauternI. Prtajin (assist: S. Şahin)
17'1. FC KaiserslauternN. Skytta (assist: I. Prtajin)
24'1. FC KaiserslauternI. Prtajin (assist: P. Joly)
50'Preußen MünsterO. Vilhelmsson (assist: O. Batista Meier)
64'1. FC KaiserslauternI. Prtajin (assist: P. Joly)

Match statistics

Match statistics
1. FC Kaiserslautern		Preußen Münster
15	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	6
12	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	0
1	Offsides	1
36%	Possession	64%
341	Passes	647
253	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.63 · Preußen Münster 1.25. On the pitch: 4-1.
Shots 1. FC Kaiserslautern 15 · Preußen Münster 14; on target 6 and 6.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

Patrick Schwengers, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.0%: “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern, 1.17 for Preußen Münster.
The highest double chance value is 73.5% (1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern win or draw).
These values were computed from 963 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win47.0%

Draw26.6%

Preußen Münster to win26.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

19	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 3–0

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time32.3%

Level at half-time41.8%

Preußen Münster lead at half-time25.9%

First-half double chance

1X — 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead or level74.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Preußen Münster ahead67.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 963 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 19
Preußen Münster: at least 13Actual: 12

Corners

1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 5
Preußen Münster: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.63

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.25

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.06×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.3%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.