2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

Preußen Münster–Fortuna Düsseldorf

1–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

19'Preußen MünsterS. Scherder (assist: L. Bolay)
64'Fortuna DüsseldorfC. Itten
72'Fortuna DüsseldorfF. Muslija (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preußen Münster		Fortuna Düsseldorf
21	Shots	10
6	Shots on target	2
14	Shots inside the box	7
0	Goalkeeper saves	5
8	Corners	2
0	Offsides	2
73%	Possession	27%
832	Passes	299
764	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preußen Münster 1.54 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.29. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Preußen Münster 21 · Fortuna Düsseldorf 10; on target 6 and 2.
Preußen Münster kept the ball more (73%).

Referee

Florian Lechner, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.8%: “Preußen Münster to win”. Second comes “Fortuna Düsseldorf to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.39 for Preußen Münster, 1.27 for Fortuna Düsseldorf.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 960 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preußen Münster to win38.8%

Draw28.1%

Fortuna Düsseldorf to win33.1%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Preußen Münster lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time41.8%

Fortuna Düsseldorf lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Preußen Münster ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time58.2%

X2 — level or Fortuna Düsseldorf ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 960 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preußen Münster: at least 11Actual: 14
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Preußen Münster: at least 4Actual: 8
Fortuna Düsseldorf: at least 4Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preußen Münster score1.54

Attack: Preußen Münster score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Fortuna Düsseldorf score1.29

Attack: Fortuna Düsseldorf score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preußen Münster's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%2–19.4%1–08.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.