2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

SpVgg Greuther Fürth–1. FC Kaiserslautern

0–3

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 14 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Fürth

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

1'SpVgg Greuther FürthNoah König · red card
33'1. FC KaiserslauternN. Skytta (assist: P. Joly)
58'1. FC KaiserslauternI. Prtajin (assist: P. Joly)
64'1. FC KaiserslauternI. Prtajin (assist: F. Kleinhansl)

Match statistics

Match statistics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth		1. FC Kaiserslautern
8	Shots	14
3	Shots on target	6
2	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
4	Corners	5
2	Offsides	2
35%	Possession	65%
340	Passes	609
268	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.61 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 1.54. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots SpVgg Greuther Fürth 8 · 1. FC Kaiserslautern 14; on target 3 and 6.
1. FC Kaiserslautern kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Richard Hempel, Germany→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.2%: “SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win”. Second comes “1. FC Kaiserslautern to win” at 33.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1.46 for 1. FC Kaiserslautern.
The highest double chance value is 74.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 960 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win40.2%

Draw26.0%

1. FC Kaiserslautern to win33.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	15

1	Yellow cards	6

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead at half-time31.3%

Level at half-time40.1%

1. FC Kaiserslautern lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SpVgg Greuther Fürth ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time59.9%

X2 — level or 1. FC Kaiserslautern ahead68.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 960 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 12Actual: 9
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 11Actual: 15

Corners

SpVgg Greuther Fürth: at least 4Actual: 4
1. FC Kaiserslautern: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SpVgg Greuther Fürth score1.61

Attack: SpVgg Greuther Fürth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Kaiserslautern's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.61 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Kaiserslautern score1.54

Attack: 1. FC Kaiserslautern score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.5%2–19.6%1–28.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.