2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

Hannover 96–Hertha BSC

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 18:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Heinz-von-Heiden-Arena, Hannover

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 20%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

51'Hertha BSCMarten Winkler (assist: D. Kownacki)
68'Hertha BSCD. Kownacki (assist: F. Reese)
90'Hertha BSCL. Schuler (assist: M. Cuisance)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hannover 96		Hertha BSC
21	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	3
13	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	2
15	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0
66%	Possession	34%
513	Passes	271
453	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hannover 96 1.63 · Hertha BSC 1.07. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Hannover 96 21 · Hertha BSC 9; on target 3 and 3.
Hannover 96 kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

S. Stegemann→

4.87

yellows per match

0.26

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 56.9%: “Hannover 96 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 23.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Hannover 96, 1.12 for Hertha BSC.
The highest double chance value is 80.2% (1X — Hannover 96 win or draw).
These values were computed from 959 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hannover 96 to win56.9%

Draw23.3%

Hertha BSC to win19.8%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Hannover 96 lead at half-time37.4%

Level at half-time43.1%

Hertha BSC lead at half-time19.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Hannover 96 ahead or level80.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Hertha BSC ahead62.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 959 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hannover 96: at least 11Actual: 13
Hertha BSC: at least 12Actual: 19

Corners

Hannover 96: at least 5
Hertha BSC: at least 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hannover 96 score1.63

Attack: Hannover 96 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hertha BSC's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hertha BSC score1.07

Attack: Hertha BSC score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hannover 96 concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.07 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.3%2–110.9%2–08.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.