2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

SV Darmstadt 98–Eintracht Braunschweig

2–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor, Darmstadt

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

21'Eintracht BraunschweigM. Aydın (assist: R. Heusser)
62'SV Darmstadt 98I. Lidberg (assist: F. Hornby)
85'Eintracht BraunschweigSven Köhler · red card
86'SV Darmstadt 98Matej Maglica

Match statistics

Match statistics
SV Darmstadt 98		Eintracht Braunschweig
10	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
6	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	5
5	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
495	Passes	359
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: SV Darmstadt 98 1.97 · Eintracht Braunschweig 0.93. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots SV Darmstadt 98 10 · Eintracht Braunschweig 13; on target 4 and 5.
SV Darmstadt 98 kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

L. Benen→

5.31

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.3%: “SV Darmstadt 98 to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.13 for SV Darmstadt 98, 1.13 for Eintracht Braunschweig.
The highest double chance value is 82.0% (1X — SV Darmstadt 98 win or draw).
These values were computed from 956 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

SV Darmstadt 98 to win60.3%

Draw21.7%

Eintracht Braunschweig to win18.0%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–1

SV Darmstadt 98 lead at half-time47.6%

Level at half-time38.9%

Eintracht Braunschweig lead at half-time13.6%

First-half double chance

1X — SV Darmstadt 98 ahead or level86.4%

12 — not level at half-time61.1%

X2 — level or Eintracht Braunschweig ahead52.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 956 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 11Actual: 11
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

SV Darmstadt 98: at least 5Actual: 2
Eintracht Braunschweig: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals SV Darmstadt 98 score1.97

Attack: SV Darmstadt 98 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Eintracht Braunschweig's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.97 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Eintracht Braunschweig score0.93

Attack: Eintracht Braunschweig score below the league average (27% fewer).

Opponent's defence: SV Darmstadt 98's defence is close to the league average (0.97×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.93 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%1–110.3%2–08.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.