2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

FC Schalke 04–Holstein Kiel

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 11:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 31%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Holstein KielA. Bernhardsson (assist: A. Kaprálik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
FC Schalke 04		Holstein Kiel
12	Shots	10
4	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	3
5	Offsides	1
52%	Possession	48%
434	Passes	420
328	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 1.35 · Holstein Kiel 1.50. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots FC Schalke 04 12 · Holstein Kiel 10; on target 4 and 5.

Referee

R. Kampka→

4.88

yellows per match

0.29

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.1%: “FC Schalke 04 to win”. Second comes “Holstein Kiel to win” at 30.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.61 for FC Schalke 04, 1.33 for Holstein Kiel.
The highest double chance value is 73.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 956 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

FC Schalke 04 to win43.1%

Draw26.3%

Holstein Kiel to win30.6%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	13

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

FC Schalke 04 lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time40.5%

Holstein Kiel lead at half-time32.8%

First-half double chance

1X — FC Schalke 04 ahead or level67.2%

12 — not level at half-time59.5%

X2 — level or Holstein Kiel ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 956 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

FC Schalke 04: at least 11Actual: 17
Holstein Kiel: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

FC Schalke 04: at least 5Actual: 8
Holstein Kiel: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals FC Schalke 04 score1.35

Attack: FC Schalke 04 score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Holstein Kiel concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Holstein Kiel score1.50

Attack: Holstein Kiel score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: FC Schalke 04's defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.9%2–110.0%1–28.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.