2. Bundesliga · Germany · Regular Season - 5

Arminia Bielefeld–1. FC Magdeburg

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 12 September 2025 at 16:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: SchücoArena, Bielefeld

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'Arminia BielefeldM. Corboz (assist: J. Grodowski)
62'Arminia BielefeldJ. Grodowski (assist: M. Mehlem)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Arminia Bielefeld		1. FC Magdeburg
13	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	3
8	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	5
1	Offsides	0
42%	Possession	58%
357	Passes	500
261	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Arminia Bielefeld 2.10 · 1. FC Magdeburg 1.32. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Arminia Bielefeld 13 · 1. FC Magdeburg 17; on target 5 and 3.
1. FC Magdeburg kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

K. Oldhafer→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Arminia Bielefeld to win”. Second comes “1. FC Magdeburg to win” at 29.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.80 for Arminia Bielefeld, 1.43 for 1. FC Magdeburg.
The highest double chance value is 75.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 954 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Arminia Bielefeld to win45.7%

Draw24.8%

1. FC Magdeburg to win29.5%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	12

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Arminia Bielefeld lead at half-time49.1%

Level at half-time36.6%

1. FC Magdeburg lead at half-time14.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Arminia Bielefeld ahead or level85.7%

12 — not level at half-time63.4%

X2 — level or 1. FC Magdeburg ahead50.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 954 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 12Actual: 13
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 12Actual: 12

Corners

Arminia Bielefeld: at least 5Actual: 5
1. FC Magdeburg: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Arminia Bielefeld score2.10

Attack: Arminia Bielefeld score above the league average (19% more).

Opponent's defence: 1. FC Magdeburg concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals 1. FC Magdeburg score1.32

Attack: 1. FC Magdeburg score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Arminia Bielefeld's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.32 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.5%2–110.1%1–27.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.